Abstract: Nowadays, foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important engine for economic development in developing countries. This study examines the mediating effect of institutional quality on the relationship between China's FDI and the economic growth of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) countries. As the world's second-largest economy, China is a major driving force behind global economic growth. This research is significant for the strategic alliances advocated by the "Belt and Road" initiative, as well as for investments that enhance global trade and economic integration.

Chinese FDI inflow to COMESA has rapidly grown in recent years. COMESA serves as a strategic hub for maritime trade routes, providing access to both the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. The study used random effects model and annual data from 11 COMESA countries for the period 2003-2021.

The study found that Chinese FDI positively impacts GDP growth in COMESA countries at a 1% significance level. Access to electricity was also positively correlated with GDP growth. Trade exhibited a negative impact on GDP growth at a 10% significance level. Inflation had a strong significant negative effect at the 1% level, underscoring the detrimental impact of high inflation on economic stability and growth. Institutional quality independently was positive and significant at the 10% level, indicating that higher institutional quality generally enhances GDP growth. In contrast, the interaction term between Chinese FDI and institutional quality was negative and significant at the 10% level. This highlights the complexity of the relationship and suggests that while strong institutions are beneficial on their own, their interaction with FDI requires careful management.

Keywords: Chinese Foreign direct investment (FDI); Economic Growth; Institutional Quality; COMESA; Random Effects Model.

Title: The Impact of Institutional Quality and Chinese FDI in GDP Growth in COMESA

Author: CHIFUNDO MATOLA

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 80-92

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 27-June-2024

Abstract: The aim of this study is to examine the mediating effect of domestic institutional quality on the relationship between Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) countries. Utilizing a random effects model and annual time series data from 11 countries for the period 2003-2021, the study incorporates robust control variables and performs mediation analysis. Data on Chinese FDI stock was sourced from the China Africa Research Initiative, and GDP per capita growth along with control variables were sourced from World Development Indicators. Institutional quality, used as a moderator and proxied by economic freedom, was sourced from the Fraser Institute. Economic freedom encompasses five distinct areas: size of government, legal system and property rights, sound money, freedom to trade internationally, and regulation. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) yielded a KMO of 0.762, indicating that the economic freedom components effectively captured institutional quality.

The study found that Chinese FDI positively impacts GDP growth at a 5% significance level. Similarly, access to electricity is positively correlated with GDP growth at a 5% significance level. Trade and inflation have negative impacts on GDP growth at 10% and 1% significance levels, respectively. Other factors such as mobile cellular subscriptions, gross fixed capital formation, domestic credit to the private sector by banks, and government final consumption expenditure were statistically insignificant. Additionally, the interaction between Chinese FDI and institutional quality negatively impacts GDP growth.

To enhance GDP growth in COMESA, the study recommends strengthening institutional quality, improving infrastructure, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and liberalizing trade policies.

Keywords: Foreign direct investment (FDI); Economic Growth; Institutional Quality; COMESA; Random Effects Model.

Title: The Role of Institutional Quality and Chinese Investment in Shaping GDP Growth in COMESA

Author: CHIFUNDO MATOLA

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 57-79

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 12-June-2024

Abstract: This paper studies the impact of the Sino-US trade conflict Section 301on bilateral trade based on quarterly segmented product data between China and Asian countries from 2013 to 2022 by using DID (Differnce in diferences) model. The results show that the trade conflict between China and the United States has had a significant negative impact on China's imports from and exports to the United States but has positive impacts on trade between China and Asian countries. The DID model results indicate an increased gap between China-US trade and China-Asian trade in the post-conflict period compared to the pre-conflict period. Specifically, China's export trend to the U.S. dropped by 26.2 % points, while its export trend to ASEAN countries increased by 0.1 % points; China's import trend from the U.S. fell by 31.8% points, while its import trend from ASEAN countries rose by 12.6 % points.

Keywords: Trade conflict, Section 301, DID model.

Title: The Sino-US conflict Section 301 effects the trend of the trade between China and Asian countries based on the bilateral trade from 2013 to 2022

Author: NINH THI HUYEN

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 50-56

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 06-June-2024

Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the role of transaction costs in determining market participation of smallholder livestock farmers in the southern rangelands of Kenya.  A double-hurdle model was used to establish whether or not a household participated in cattle and small ruminants markets, and how much they sold conditional upon having decided to be market participants. Secondary data from the Agricultural Sectoral Development Support Program belonging to 1512 households spread across 10 pastoral and agro-pastoral counties was used in estimating the model. The transaction costs that influence the level of market participation include ownership of transport facility, access to veterinary services, distance to the livestock market, pasture land size, and size of the tropical livestock units. Those that hindered market participation included access to off-farm income while those who have large pasture lands and tropical livestock units, and access to veterinary services, motorcycles, or radio are more likely to participate. Policy measures, such as policies dealing with land reform and extension services are necessary while others require indirect intervention and private sector involvement such as road networks, market availability, and macro-credit facilities.

Keywords: Transaction costs, double-hurdle, market participation, smallholder households, livestock, Kenya.

Title: Transaction Costs and Market Participation Among Livestock Producers in Southern Rangelands of Kenya

Author: Manyeki John Kibara, Kotosz Balázs Gyula

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 38-49

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 05-June-2024

Abstract: This study investigates and compared the performance of two distinct variants of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks—vanilla LSTM and bidirectional LSTM in forecasting multivariate exchange rate data. The dataset utilized in this study comprises the daily historical data of the official exchange rates of four foreign currencies: the United States Dollar ($), Swiss Franc (₣), Euro (€) and Pound Sterling (£) against the Nigerian Naira (N) spanning from January 2006 to May 2023. The data set was split into two subsets: the in-sample data, which were used for model estimation and the out-of-sample data, which were used for out-of-sample prediction evaluation. The data underwent preprocessing and formatting for LSTM input before training and testing varying architectures of the two LSTM variants. Furthermore, forecasting precision of the models were evaluated and compared through the use of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) performance metrics. The results revealed that the bidirectional LSTM outperformed vanilla LSTM in the forecast of multivariate exchange rate.

Keywords: Multivariate time series, Exchange rate forecasting, Long Short-Term Memory, Forecast accuracy.

Title: Multivariate Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction with Long-Short Term Memory Deep Learning Networks

Author: Saminu Umar, Aliyu M. Lamido, Muhammad K. Aminu

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 29-37

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 16-May-2024

Abstract: This study examines the influence of electronic banking services, including mobile banking, Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), and online banking, on financial inclusion in Ondo state, Nigeria. The statement recognises the vital significance of technology in developing the banking industry, specifically in tackling the obstacles related to financial inclusion. Despite substantial endeavours, there needs to be more banking services in remote regions, impeding the expansion of small businesses, particularly in the agriculture and transportation industries. The study aims to evaluate the impact of mobile banking, ATMs, and internet banking on financial inclusion. The purpose of formulating hypotheses is to examine the correlations between electronic banking methods and financial inclusion in Ondo state. Utilising multinomial logistic regression for data analysis, it is evident that all three electronic banking techniques have a beneficial influence on financial inclusion. Mobile banking, ATMs, and Internet banking demonstrate noteworthy effects. The results indicate that these digital banking systems can potentially improve financial accessibility and ease, especially in locations that lack sufficient services. Suggested measures comprise enhancing internet and mobile network coverage, expanding ATM accessibility, organising educational campaigns, and implementing financial literacy programmes to encourage the proficient and secure utilisation of electronic banking technologies.

Keywords: Digital Strategies, Technological Advancements, Financial Inclusion, Cashless Policy, Online Banking, Banking Sector.

Title: Navigating Technological Shifts: The Role of Digital Strategies in Modern Banking

Author: Abdullahi Idris AHMAD, Sule MAGAJI, Ibrahim MUSA

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 13-28

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 14-May-2024

Abstract: The study examined the impact of stock market indicators on Nigeria’s economic growth between 1991 and 2021. It employed Johansen co-integration to check the long-run relationship among the secondary data: Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) as the dependent variable; Market Capitalization (MCAP), All Share Index (ASI), and Gross Capital Formation (GCF) represented the independent variables which were sourced from CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Development Indicators. Pre-estimation test showed that all the variables were integrated of order one, I (1) through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test. The co-integration test revealed the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The error Correction Model (ECM) technique was adopted to analyze the short-run dynamics in the dataset. The ECM results showed that market capitalization and all share indexes had a positive impact on the RGDP in the short run. However, the gross capital formation was found to be negative but significant at a 5 percent significance level. Moreover, the error correction term showed that equilibrium, in the long run, is reconciled at a speed of approximately 51 percent aftershock. Further, the diagnostic test showed that the residuals are homoscedastic and efficiently distributed. Results are therefore appropriate for policy analysis. This research offers valuable insights but the findings have some constraints of limitations, particularly regarding available relevant materials and papers. This study is original for it has filled some gaps by examining the impact of stock market indicators on Nigeria's economy between 1991 and 2021. Given limited existing research, this study contributes to knowledge by exploring the impacts stock market indicators have on Nigeria's economic growth within the period under study. The study recommended that there is a need for the Federal Government of Nigeria through the Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) to encourage private sector investment in the capital market. This can be done through educating and enlightening the public using experts who are competent in stock market dealings.

Keywords: Stock market, Capital formation, Market capitalization, Share Index and Economic Growth.

Title: Stock Market Indicators and Nigeria’s Economic Growth: Evidence from Error Correction Model

Author: El-Yaqub A. B., Ibrahim Musa, Sule Magaji

International Journal of Novel Research in Marketing Management and Economics

ISSN 2394-7322

Vol. 11, Issue 2, May 2024 - August 2024

Page No: 1-12

Novelty Journals

Website: www.noveltyjournals.com

Published Date: 03-May-2024